Occupancy in dynamic systems: accounting for multiple scales and false positives using environmental DNA to inform monitoring

Occupancy is an important metric to understand current and future trends in populations that have declined globally. In addition, occupancy can be an efficient tool for conducting landscape-scale and long-term monitoring. A challenge for occupancy monitoring programs is to determine the appropriate spatial scale of analysis and to obtain precise occupancy estimates for elusive species. We used a multi-scale occupancy model to assess occupancy of Columbia spotted frogs in the Great Basin, USA, based on environmental DNA (eDNA) detections. We collected three replicate eDNA samples at 220 sites across the Great Basin. We estimated and modeled ecological factors that described watershed and site occupancy at multiple spatial scales simultaneously while accounting for imperfect detection. Additionally, we conducted visual and dipnet surveys at all sites and used our paired detections to estimate the probability of a false positive detection for our eDNA sampling. We applied the estimated false positive rate to our multi-scale occupancy dataset and assessed changes in model selection. We had higher naïve occupancy estimates for eDNA (0.37) than for traditional survey methods (0.20). We estimated our false positive detection rate per qPCR replicate at 0.023 (95% CI: 0.016–0.033). When the false positive rate was applied to the multi-scale dataset, we did not observe substantial changes in model selection or parameter estimates. Conservation and resource managers have an increasing need to understand species occupancy in highly variable landscapes where the spatial distribution of habitat changes significantly over time due to climate change and human impact. A multi-scale occupancy approach can be used to obtain regional occupancy estimates that can account for spatially dynamic differences in availability over time, especially when assessing potential declines. Additionally, this study demonstrates how eDNA can be used as an effective tool for improved occupancy estimates across broad geographic scales for long-term monitoring.     

Ecological and environmental effects of land use change in rapid urbanization: The case of hangzhou,China

Land use changes sharply under rapid urbanization, yet its ecological and environmental effects are often neglected in land use decisions. Using the case of Hangzhou, China, we analyze the ecological and environmental effects of land use changes, including ecosystem services value (ESV) and carbon emissions, based on Landsat TM images from 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2014. We found significant ecological and environmental effects of land use changes under rapid urbanization. The value of ecosystem services in Hangzhou decreased from 546.7 million USD in 1995 to 448.97 million USD in 2014, and the ratio of ESV to GDP decreased from 5.8% to 0.6%. The net carbon emissions associated with land use changes increased from 4.26 million tons in 1995 to 15.10 million tons in 2014, mainly due to the increase of built-up land carbon emissions and the decrease of forest land carbon sink. The ESV is unevenly distributed spatially and low ESV spread from the central to the peripheral area. We use scenario analysis to illustrate that economic growth and environmental protection could be coordinated by bringing ecological and environmental effects into land use decisions.     

IND综合评价的逻辑结构及成药性评价

基于各学科信息作出安全性、有效性和质量可控性方面的综合评价是新药研究评价的灵魂，是一个多学科、多组织参与的综合决策过程。根据新药评价研究的实际工作经验，介绍一个新药临床试验综合评价的逻辑性、结构性的工作思考模式，有助于将不同专业的技术信息和技术结论有机整合，作出科学决策。     

Correlation between two components of parental investment: nest defence intensity and nestling provisioning effort of willow tits

Nest defence intensity and nestling provisioning effort of female willow tits (Parus montanus) were significantly correlated at the end of nestling period: well-fed young were defended most intensely. Increased effort was rewarded, since broods with the highest female per-offspring provisioning rates were the most likely to produce local recruits. This suggests that the feeding ability is an important cue for parental investment decisions, at least in a species like the willow tit which has adopted the clutch adjustment strategy. Thus, the most valuable broods would not necessarily be the largest ones, but the ones in which the original number of young could be fed most adequately. However, no associations were found between the level of parental effort and offspring weight, size or condition, nor did the broods producing recruits differ from other broods in timing of breeding or number and size of offspring. The female behaviour may suggest that they invest the most time, energy and risk in the young whose chances of joining the winter flock are the best. The first well-fed young also gain an advantage of prior residency in joining the flock. The first to join normally obtain higher social status, and hence better winter survival, than latecomers. The corresponding patterns in male parental investment behaviour were weak or absent, which suggested that the male effort was affected by the female behaviour. Males seemed to invest in nestling provisioning in such a way as to supplement the female effort. During nest defence action males also seemed to invest in protection of females against predation.     

Chemo- and karyotaxonomic studies on some rhizomatous species of the genusSymphytum (Boraginaceae)

InS. tuberosum subspp.tuberosum andnodosum, S. grandiflorum andS. ibericum the presence of the pyrrolizidine alkaloids lycopsamine, echimidine and symphytine could be demonstrated. The taxonS. tuberosum contains an unknown compound that seems to be specific for this taxon. This compound is not the pyrrolizidine alkaloid anadoline which has previously been reported for this species. It is possibly represented by a peak on GC/MS with a molecular ion peak at m/z 623 (as TMS derivative) and can be used as a chemotaxonomic marker for the speciesS. tuberosum. The pyrrolizidine alkaloid pattern of the two subspecies ofS. tuberosum reinforces the close relationship. Fresh material ofS. tuberosum contained the triterpene isobauerenol, but in herbarium material isobauerenol was lacking. InS. grandiflorum, neither fresh nor dried material contains isobauerenol. In herbarium material ofS. ibericum also no isobauerenol could be found. More extensive chemotaxonomical research is necessary to support the view thatS. abchasicum is more closely related toS. ibericum than toS. grandiflorum.     

Tests of associational defence provided by hairy plants for glabrous plants of Arabidopsis halleri subsp. gemmifera against insect herbivores

1. Trichome‐producing (hairy) and trichomeless (glabrous) plants of Arabidopsis halleri subsp. gemmifera were investigated to test whether plant resistance to herbivory depends on the plants' phenotypes and/or the phenotypes of neighbouring plants (associational effects). 2. A common garden experiment was conducted in which the relative frequency of hairy and glabrous plants was manipulated. Two species of leaf‐chewing insects (larvae of a white butterfly and a cabbage sawfly) were found less often on hairy plants than on glabrous plants. By contrast, the numbers of aphids and flea beetles did not differ significantly between hairy and glabrous plants. For none of these insects did abundance depend on the frequency of the two plant morphs. 3. A field survey was conducted in two natural populations of A. halleri. In the first population, a species of white butterfly was the dominant herbivore, and hairy plants incurred less leaf damage than glabrous plants across 2 years. By contrast, in the other population, where flea beetles were dominant, there were no consistent differences in leaf damage between the two types of plants. In neither of the two populations was any evidence found of associational effects. 4. This study did not provide any conclusive evidence of associational effects of anti‐herbivore resistance, but it was discovered that trichomes can confer resistance to certain herbivores. Given the results of previous work by the authors on associational effects against a flightless leaf beetle, such associational effects of the trichome dimorphism of A. halleri were herbivore‐specific.